Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc388…f7b5 other 127 markets active 3h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$932 (+0%) realized +$932 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,636per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$37
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$157
politics 34% −$100
culture 3% −$9
sports 2% +$1,149
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -2.5% -11.8% 9% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 123 +3.0% -6.8% 11% 7% -9.1%
all 127 +2.9% -6.9% 10% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 7% -9.1%
10% -15.8% 7% -17.8%
15% -23.9% 7% -25.8%
20% -31.4% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,180) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$5 · ×22.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$932
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,636
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,075 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $288 +$1 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $2,083 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $973 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,092 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,867 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,591 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $3,750 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $82 +$4 +4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,567 −$3 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,624 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $4,770 −$6 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,700 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $5,810 −$8 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $4,636 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $77 +$72 +93%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,396 −$6 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $3,410 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,554 −$8 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $143 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,532 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,854 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,572 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,260 −$3 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $68 +$74 +109%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $55 +$29 +52%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $3,657 −$5 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 2h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 3h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $735 4h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $736 5h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $451 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $452 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $842 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $843 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $903 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $904 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,006 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,008 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $972 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $973 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $858 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $859 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $974 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $975 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,104 8d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $925 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $926 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,311 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $288 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,313 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,248 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,232 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 418 history records