Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc389…87e6 crypto 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-0%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%365W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$35
sports 39% −$148
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 87 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 369 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$71 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses365 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)369 / 370
History coverage370d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $133 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? Jun 17 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 16? Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 12? Jun 12 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? May 30 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 27 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 26 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 25? May 25 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 24 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? May 23 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 20? May 20 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 18? May 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 17? May 17 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 16? May 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 14? May 14 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 13? May 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 12 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? May 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 07 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 6? May 06 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 5? May 05 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 2? May 02 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 1? May 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? Apr 27 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $122 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $133 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 26h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $130 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $129 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $129 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $129 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $128 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $127 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 22d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $127 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $126 29d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $126 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $126 31d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $126 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.61 · official $132.61 (match) · 753 history records