Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc38e…ca77 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$1
other 12% $0
world 6% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage104d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $96 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $96 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $98 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 12h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 16d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $96 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 23d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 33d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 33d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 33d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 33d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 37d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 38d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 44d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 45d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $97 64d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $97 65d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $97 68d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $97 68d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 72d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 72d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $97 74d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $97 74d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 77d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 78d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 84d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 84d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $98 92d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 92d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 95d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records