Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc392…511b other 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,140 (+17%) realized +$3,926 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%70W / 222L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days−$78
14 days−$496
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% +$2,343
other 21% +$497
politics 17% −$2,303
economics 16% −$298
world 10% +$3,783
tech 5% −$352
finance 2% +$22
culture 1% +$185
sports 1% −$54
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -18.9%
≤30d 29 -41.5% -47.0% 21% 21% -13.9%
≤90d 49 +23.2% +11.5% 27% 27% +61.6%
all 292 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 21% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 21% +5.8%
10% -18.3% 17% -4.3%
15% -26.2% 15% -13.6%
20% -33.5% 13% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$38 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$2,524
Realized+$3,926
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses70 / 222
Open positions17
Markets (closed)292 / 309
History coverage590d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 13¢ 52¢ $130 $520 +$390 (+300%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $265 $321 +$56 (+21%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $37 $309 +$272 (+745%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $235 $273 +$38 (+16%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? No 60¢ 48¢ $234 $189 −$45 (-19%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $164 $171 +$7 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $157 $155 −$2 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-22%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $70 $97 +$27 (+39%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 52¢ 70¢ $57 $77 +$20 (+35%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 10¢ 5¢ $122 $66 −$56 (-46%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $130 $64 −$66 (-50%)
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 50¢ 47¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $160 $25 −$135 (-85%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $265 $18 −$246 (-93%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 65¢ 76¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 142 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $92 +$116 +126%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $77 +$59 +77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $208 +$37 +18%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $283 −$282 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $85 −$2 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $103 −$101 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $147 −$144 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
New "The Boys" episode released by May 31? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $337 −$330 -98%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $85 +$415 +488%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? May 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? May 25 $1 −$1 -77%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 25 $2 −$1 -85%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? May 25 $4 −$3 -68%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 25 $27 −$21 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $136 −$130 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $300 +$420 +140%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 19 $164 +$101 +62%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 17 $206 +$377 +183%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 17 $134 −$130 -97%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? May 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 13 $120 +$13 +11%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $45 −$44 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $184 +$2,216 +1206%
Will the Conservative Party win the second-most council seat elections May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 07 $89 −$88 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $49 +$880 +1798%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $50 +$132 +264%
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 18 $80 −$30 -37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Mar 28 $5 −$3 -54%
Over $180M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 26 $128 +$32 +25%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $134 +$58 +43%
Over $200M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 24? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will anyone say "Alien" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 50¢ $33 58m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 53¢ $208 1h
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 48¢ $18 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 50¢ $16 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 49¢ $11 7h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 63¢ $25 15h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 64¢ $64 21h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 90¢ $136 21h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 52¢ $8 24h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 52¢ $50 24h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 24h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 63¢ $50 24h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 63¢ $50 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 38h
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $70 45h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 65¢ $7 46h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 65¢ $2 47h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $265 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 23¢ $86 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 23¢ $3 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 23¢ $3 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,524.23 · official $2,524.28 (match) · 1871 history records