Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc394…1817 crypto 804 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,630 (-9%) realized −$2,642 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%354W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day127.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$616
7 days−$2,156
14 days−$1,603
30 days−$3,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,484
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -17.1% -25.0% 41% 39% -32.3%
≤30d 801 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 43% -20.6%
≤90d 801 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 43% -20.6%
all 801 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 43% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 43% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 42% -28.2%
15% -33.6% 42% -35.1%
20% -40.1% 41% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$35 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$2,642
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses354 / 447
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)801 / 804
History coverage21d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day127.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 801 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 0¢ 40¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$57 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$47 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$22 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$108 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $96 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$33 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$23 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$28 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$27 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$41 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$59 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$20 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$39 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$85 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 6m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 14m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.10 · official $35.80 · 3278 history records