Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc394…de08 crypto 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate86%214W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 22% -8.0%
≤30d 248 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 22% -8.0%
≤90d 248 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 22% -8.0%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 22% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 22% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 9% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 4% -24.9%
20% -33.5% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses214 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$8 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 634 history records