Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc396…b81d other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+1%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 47L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
politics 17% −$14
other 13% +$1
sports 3% +$153
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 +10.6% +0.1% 29% 21% -7.4%
all 65 +8.2% -2.1% 28% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 17% -9.0%
10% -11.5% 17% -17.7%
15% -20.0% 14% -25.7%
20% -27.9% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage613d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $244 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$7 +50%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $203 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $420 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $216 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Liverpool FC leading at halftime? Apr 09 $15 +$4 +27%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $12 +$8 +72%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$6 +70%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $12 +$12 +104%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 03 $24 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 03 $18 +$9 +52%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 03 $49 $0 +1%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 03 $29 +$51 +178%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Mar 30 $45 +$29 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 34m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 16d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $44 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 16d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $46 23d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $46 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.98 · official $112.98 (match) · 319 history records