Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc396…d01b crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$452 (-6%) realized −$317 · open −$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$457
7 days+$457
14 days+$443
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$34
other 7% +$369
sports 5% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +258.6% +224.4% 100% 100% +173.2%
≤30d 8 +118.1% +97.3% 62% 62% +70.3%
≤90d 8 +118.1% +97.3% 62% 62% +70.3%
all 70 +17.8% +6.6% 51% 20% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 20% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 17% -13.1%
15% -13.0% 10% -21.5%
20% -21.5% 10% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
29.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$317
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 75
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India India 55¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India India 44¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $41 +$89 +213%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $20 +$88 +440%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $65 +$185 +285%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$96 +96%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $146 +$39 +27%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $48 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 19 $99 +$9 +10%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 19 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 19 $98 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 19 $99 +$9 +9%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 19 $107 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 19 $90 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 19 $66 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 19 $52 −$6 -11%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 19 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 19 $87 −$11 -12%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 19 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 19 $42 −$8 -19%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 19 $139 −$30 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 19 $201 −$27 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 18 $65 −$4 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 18 $68 +$7 +10%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 18 $88 −$4 -5%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 18 $145 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 18 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 18 $8 +$2 +26%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 18 $48 −$5 -11%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 18 $133 −$13 -10%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 18 $133 −$28 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 18 $125 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 18 $85 −$3 -4%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 18 $52 +$7 +14%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 18 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 18 $149 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 10 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 10 $176 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 10 $64 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 10 $278 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 10 $152 −$27 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 10 $172 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $107 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $85 −$9 -11%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $110 +$4 +3%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 10 $157 −$5 -3%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 10 $98 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 10 $146 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 44¢ $26 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 44¢ $26 1h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek BUY Lucio Ratti 31¢ $41 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 55¢ $84 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 18¢ $20 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $65 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 18¢ $30 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 50¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $219 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $102 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $46 7d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 79¢ $146 8d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 101d
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.14 (match) · 3500 history records