Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C3 0xc398…b877 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$116 (-16%) realized −$105 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -60.3% -64.1% 0% 0% -64.0%
≤30d 2 -60.3% -64.1% 0% 0% -64.0%
≤90d 2 -60.3% -64.1% 0% 0% -64.0%
all 2 -60.3% -64.1% 0% 0% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.1% 0% -64.0%
10% -67.5% 0% -67.5%
15% -70.6% 0% -70.6%
20% -73.5% 0% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$62 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $200 $273 +$73 (+37%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$22 -21%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 5¢ $58 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.92 · official $530.48 · 10 history records