Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc398…f446 sports 1419 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 485d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52,049 (-13%) realized −$51,826 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%525W / 892L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1,216est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,133
7 days−$658
14 days−$1,527
30 days−$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$31,415
other 29% −$23,605
crypto 8% +$412
world 0% −$535
politics 0% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -23.7% -31.0% 36% 36% -13.0%
≤30d 250 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 40% -11.3%
≤90d 490 -12.1% -20.5% 37% 37% -16.2%
all 1417 -13.4% -21.6% 37% 37% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 37% -21.9%
10% -29.1% 36% -29.4%
15% -36.0% 35% -36.2%
20% -42.3% 34% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$256 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$51,826
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses525 / 892
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,216
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1417 / 1419
History coverage485d ⚠
Avg bet$283
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil Bella Payne 45¢ 69¢ $147 $223 +$76 (+52%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Lucie Havlickova 30¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $767 −$755 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $427 +$647 +152%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze Jun 23 $295 −$291 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $535 +$887 +166%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $219 −$219 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $410 −$410 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Jun 23 $491 −$483 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens Jun 23 $396 −$396 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Joint vs Arango Jun 22 $253 −$253 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 22 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $299 +$177 +59%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 22 $178 −$178 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $356 +$497 +139%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $600 +$357 +60%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Ruien Zhang vs Nadia Podoroska Jun 21 $131 −$131 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 21 $235 −$235 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Ortenzi vs Yaneva Jun 21 $355 −$355 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $188 −$188 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $502 −$502 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $601 +$377 +63%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Tiafoe Jun 21 $267 +$325 +122%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Sandro Kopp Jun 21 $260 +$310 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $314 +$648 +206%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,282 +$829 +65%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $201 +$379 +188%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $439 +$452 +103%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $274 +$366 +134%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $96 +$139 +145%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 18 $127 −$127 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 18 $211 −$211 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Shiyu Ye Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $799 −$799 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $589 +$416 +70%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $397 +$192 +48%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $267 +$341 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Rome, USA: Bella Payne vs Christasha McNeil BUY Bella Payne 45¢ $149 39m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 44¢ $2 53m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 44¢ $765 53m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 30¢ $306 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber SELL Marina Bassols Ribera 100¢ $1,073 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze BUY Julia Grabher 47¢ $295 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 39¢ $427 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $1,422 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 31¢ $1 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 37¢ $534 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Tamara Zidansek 49¢ $1 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Tamara Zidansek 49¢ $490 5h
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Mertens BUY Mertens 48¢ $396 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Carol Zhao 16¢ $410 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally BUY Janice Tjen 47¢ $219 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 15¢ $110 10h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $206 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 16¢ $99 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $96 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 17¢ $280 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Irina-Camelia Begu 100¢ $475 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 62¢ $299 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 25¢ $1 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 29¢ $299 29h
Set 2 Winner: Joint vs Arango BUY Joint 35¢ $253 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $853 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 41¢ $356 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $599 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.58 · official $223.61 (match) · 3500 history records