Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc39c…3c4c politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$9
politics 37% −$11
sports 11% −$12
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -2.5% -11.8% 3% 1% -9.7%
all 128 -3.8% -13.0% 6% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage116d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $321 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $123 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $164 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $155 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $312 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $265 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $275 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $281 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 3h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 18h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 39h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 22d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $123 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $123 24d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 25d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records