Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc39d…8120 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 37% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +11.7% +1.1% 43% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +11.7% +1.1% 43% 7% -9.6%
all 45 +3.4% -6.4% 42% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -15.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage385d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $69 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $3 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $43 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $42 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $14 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $4 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $1 $0 -13%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 22 $21 $0 -2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $19 $0 -2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $9 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $14 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $48 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $46 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $3 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $3 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $39 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $38 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $47 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $47 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $12 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $26 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $38 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records