Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc3a0…eabd crypto 580 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 169d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$330 (+2%) realized +$184 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%281W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$259
14 days+$91
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$442
other 9% +$1,342
world 3% −$218
tech 2% −$11
politics 1% −$35
sports 1% −$23
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +63.6% +48.1% 38% 38% +102.2%
≤30d 36 +1.3% -8.3% 25% 25% +18.0%
≤90d 54 +17.5% +6.3% 20% 20% +12.2%
all 547 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 50% -11.1%
10% -19.3% 50% -19.6%
15% -27.1% 49% -27.3%
20% -34.2% 49% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$1,194
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses281 / 266
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)547 / 580
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 40¢ 76¢ $142 $273 +$130 (+92%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $203 $214 +$11 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 33¢ 42¢ $98 $121 +$23 (+24%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 73¢ 86¢ $102 $120 +$18 (+17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 43¢ 70¢ $67 $109 +$43 (+64%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 26¢ 86¢ $26 $86 +$60 (+233%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $49 $70 +$21 (+44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 74¢ 66¢ $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-45%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 55¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 52¢ 87¢ $5 $9 +$3 (+67%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Yes 38¢ 7¢ $34 $6 −$27 (-81%)
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-56%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-49%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -93%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 26 $11 −$9 -85%
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $32 +$220 +698%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $25 +$26 +104%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Jun 22 $5 +$6 +129%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $14 +$36 +262%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$67 +674%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will "Magic" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above $28.0B? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "Xi" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$23 +83%
Will Apple announce a standalone Siri app during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 08 $44 +$16 +35%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 03 $8 +$46 +543%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-17? May 22 $46 −$9 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 22? May 22 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo end in a draw May 17 $25 −$6 -22%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$900 +9003%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 12 $14 +$36 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 28? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL OpenAI 26¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 74¢ $52 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $215 1h
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $51 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 44h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $36 3d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? SELL No 56¢ $11 3d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 29¢ $6 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $12 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $6 4d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $6 4d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.07 · official $1,194.09 (match) · 3500 history records