Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3a6…bccb crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+4%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%32W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day152.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$42
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +13.3% +2.5% 52% 44% -12.5%
≤30d 62 +13.3% +2.5% 52% 44% -12.5%
≤90d 62 +13.3% +2.5% 52% 44% -12.5%
all 62 +13.3% +2.5% 52% 44% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 44% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 40% -20.9%
15% -16.3% 31% -28.5%
20% -24.5% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses32 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day152.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$27 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$8 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $126 −$32 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$10 -60%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +508%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$11 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $75 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $48 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $18 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records