Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

C3 0xc3a8…2085 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$26 (+27%) realized +$31 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%4W / 11L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)+7.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+18.5%	+7.2%	27%	27%	+9.0%
≤30d	15	+18.5%	+7.2%	27%	27%	+9.0%
≤90d	15	+18.5%	+7.2%	27%	27%	+9.0%
all	15	+18.5%	+7.2%	27%	27%	+9.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.2%	27%	+9.0%
10%	-3.1%	27%	-1.4%
15%	-12.4%	27%	-10.9%
20%	-21.0%	27%	-19.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +24% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$15

Realized+$31

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses4 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)15 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5	Over	19¢	18¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
New Zealand leading at halftime?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Egypt to win the second half?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$5	+$28	+543%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$13	+249%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$23	+442%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$5	+$7	+143%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	59m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5	BUY Over	19¢	$5	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5	BUY Over	29¢	$5	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	3h
Egypt to win the second half?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	10h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$33	22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	15¢	$5	23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$18	23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5	BUY Over	23¢	$5	26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5	BUY Under	1¢	$5	31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5	BUY Under	22¢	$5	36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$28	41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	47h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$12	2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	40¢	$5	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.86 · official $14.86 (match) · 23 history records