Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3a9…38c7 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$110 (+14%) realized +$61 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$120
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤90d 2 +19.3% +7.9% 100% 100% +8.2%
all 12 -63.7% -67.1% 25% 25% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.1% 25% +5.2%
10% -70.3% 17% -4.8%
15% -73.2% 8% -14.0%
20% -75.8% 8% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$1 · ×19.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.56 per $1 lost it wins $6.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage112d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 96¢ $240 $290 +$50 (+21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $190 +$51 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $173 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 06 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.32 · official $439.32 (match) · 33 history records