Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc3aa…20ff politics 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$9
other 30% −$5
culture 15% −$4
world 8% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$732) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage75d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $739 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $1,123 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,188 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 15 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Colorado Rockies win the 2026 National League Championship Series Apr 14 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $674 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 99¢ $74 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $28 4d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 4d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,118 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,129 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,106 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $861 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $261 5d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,123 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,111 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 SELL No 100¢ $65 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records