Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ab…4122 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$21 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day77.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$4
other 12% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -12.3%
≤30d 26 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -12.3%
≤90d 26 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -12.3%
all 26 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 38% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 38% -20.7%
15% -37.8% 38% -28.3%
20% -43.9% 35% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$32 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)26 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day77.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Vitality 55¢ 100¢ $33 $60 +$27 (+82%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 41¢ 22¢ $35 $18 −$17 (-48%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Türkiye 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Türkiye $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 17¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $57 −$17 -30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$18 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $99 +$41 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $39 +$30 +77%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $67 +$58 +86%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $44 −$24 -54%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $47 −$46 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $56 +$58 +104%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: United States (-5.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$67 +165%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $83 −$68 -82%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $90 −$89 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $39 +$31 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $114 +$86 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $73 +$66 +91%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) BUY Türkiye $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye $3 2h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $7 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $18 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 10¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 25¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 35¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 45¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 55¢ $16 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $2 3h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $5 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 15¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 20¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 25¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 25¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.09 · official $137.09 (match) · 118 history records