Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ab…cc39 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%35W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$60
tech 10% −$39
economics 10% +$2
other 7% −$30
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 41 -9.1% -17.8% 85% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses35 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage143d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $108 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $754 +$1 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? May 11 $179 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 07 $25 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $671 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $407 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 04 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $55 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 02 $27 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $5,063 +$67 +1%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $112 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 27 $69 −$17 -24%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $27 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Feb 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $872 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 22 $186 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Feb 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi Feb 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Feb 14 $132 $0 +0%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $351 +$1 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 07 $177 +$2 +1%
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2 Feb 06 $49 $0 +0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28? Feb 04 $96 −$23 -24%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Feb 04 $137 −$10 -7%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $350 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 01 $50 −$25 -50%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $885 +$2 +0%
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in January? Jan 31 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $108 54m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $108 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $78 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $13 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $95 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $47 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $47 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $14 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $108 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $98 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $10 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $108 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $67 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $108 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $21 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $72 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $65 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $108 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $85 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $108 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $108 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.00 · official $111.00 (match) · 989 history records