Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3ad…97e3 crypto 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+0%) realized +$178 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%253W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$633per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$8
14 days+$17
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$168
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 69 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 150 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 254 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,012) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×179.31 per $1 lost it wins $179.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$1,117
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses253 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)254 / 256
History coverage175d
Avg bet$633
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $726 $724 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $393 $393 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,118 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,117 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 22? Jun 22 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 22? Jun 22 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $228 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 21? Jun 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $145 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 21? Jun 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 21? Jun 21 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 21? Jun 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 21? Jun 21 $476 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? Jun 20 $341 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 20? Jun 20 $772 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 19? Jun 19 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 19? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 19? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? Jun 19 $601 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 19? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 18? Jun 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 18? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 18? Jun 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $435 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 17? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $619 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 16? Jun 17 $467 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,108 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,107 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,106 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,105 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,103 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,102 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $508 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9? Jun 09 $495 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,099 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,098 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 7? Jun 08 $142 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 7? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $753 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 7? Jun 08 $186 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,096 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $726 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $275 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,118 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,117 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $188 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $228 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $600 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $75 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $145 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $46 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $84 3d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $361 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $772 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $341 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $601 5d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $173 5d
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $173 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $62 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.06 · official $1,117.06 (match) · 565 history records