Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc3b0…867e other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,327 (-19%) realized −$2,214 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%48W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$145
14 days−$174
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$212
politics 20% −$1,561
sports 14% −$308
crypto 11% −$711
economics 6% +$218
tech 3% −$219
world 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -39.6% -45.4% 39% 33% -23.7%
≤30d 40 -25.0% -32.1% 50% 45% -17.3%
≤90d 45 -25.5% -32.6% 49% 44% -21.5%
all 108 -28.2% -35.1% 44% 41% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 41% -28.4%
10% -41.3% 37% -35.3%
15% -47.0% 29% -41.5%
20% -52.2% 21% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$87 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$927
Realized−$2,214
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses48 / 60
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions11
Markets (closed)108 / 119
History coverage710d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $150 $199 +$49 (+33%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 47¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 65¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 20¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 62¢ 12¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $366 +$14 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $21 −$9 -43%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $53 +$34 +64%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 +$14 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $53 +$23 +43%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $21 +$10 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $53 +$32 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $173 +$82 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +47%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$14 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $52 +$5 +10%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$56 +53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$18 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$15 +14%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $335 +$47 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$33 +155%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $262 +$55 +21%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Apr 30 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 30 $50 +$64 +129%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 15 $200 −$117 -58%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Feb 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $211 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $209 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $97 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $105 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $72 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $53 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $75 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $21 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 3d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $53 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 81¢ $76 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $21 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 8d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 8d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $926.79 · official $926.82 (match) · 592 history records