Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc3b8…dd8b crypto 154 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$311 (-5%) realized −$327 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%60W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$563
7 days−$566
14 days−$489
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$4
sports 37% +$242
crypto 23% −$711
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -21.0% -28.5% 40% 37% -19.1%
≤30d 144 -19.4% -27.1% 42% 38% -17.4%
≤90d 144 -19.4% -27.1% 42% 38% -17.4%
all 144 -19.4% -27.1% 42% 38% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 38% -17.4%
10% -34.1% 38% -25.3%
15% -40.4% 35% -32.6%
20% -46.3% 30% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$327
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses60 / 84
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions10
Markets (closed)144 / 154
History coverage12d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 67¢ 77¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 66¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $137 +$39 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $82 +$19 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +61%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$12 +60%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $121 +$23 +19%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $303 +$120 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 +$183 +596%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$24 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $172 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $177 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $250 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $82 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 9h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.08 · official $315.09 (match) · 323 history records