Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3bc…1e7e crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+6%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$32
crypto 29% +$47
other 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 47% +13.8%
≤30d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 47% +13.8%
≤90d 19 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 47% +13.8%
all 19 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 47% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 47% +13.8%
10% -17.1% 47% +2.9%
15% -25.1% 37% -7.0%
20% -32.4% 37% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$11 +218%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 27 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +99%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $16 +$17 +112%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Jun 26 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +110%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $19 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 59m
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) SELL New Zealand 100¢ $56 1h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY New Zealand 91¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $5 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast BUY Mentality Monster 91¢ $5 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $19 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records