Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3bc…31fb other 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-7%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$95
sports 45% +$60
crypto 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -22.8% -30.1% 56% 33% -16.5%
≤90d 9 -22.8% -30.1% 56% 33% -16.5%
all 9 -22.8% -30.1% 56% 33% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 33% -16.5%
10% -36.8% 22% -24.5%
15% -42.9% 11% -31.8%
20% -48.5% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$43 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$98 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$32 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$70 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $31 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $1 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $98 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $130 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $98 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $30 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 96¢ $100 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 97¢ $100 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 85¢ $100 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records