Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc3bc…d4c1 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$575 (+24%) realized +$580 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$765
7 days+$854
14 days+$854
30 days+$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$557
other 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.3% -7.4% 60% 60% +29.8%
≤30d 11 -7.0% -15.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
≤90d 11 -7.0% -15.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
all 11 -7.0% -15.8% 55% 55% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 55% +12.8%
10% -23.9% 55% +2.0%
15% -31.2% 45% -7.9%
20% -38.0% 27% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$88 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$580
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage16d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 80¢ 80¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 60¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 +$19 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $609 +$615 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $54 −$54 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $75 +$31 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $301 −$296 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $75 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 24h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $50 24h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $1,006 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $54 47h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $609 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $75 3d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $301 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.04 · official $120.04 (match) · 19 history records