Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3bf…74ab crypto 1083 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,021 (+36%) realized +$4,021 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%600W / 483L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,034
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +21.1% +9.5% 62% 62% +10.6%
≤30d 493 +7.4% -2.8% 56% 56% -2.7%
≤90d 1083 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% -1.2%
all 1083 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 55% -1.2%
10% -10.8% 55% -10.6%
15% -19.4% 55% -19.3%
20% -27.3% 55% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,021
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses600 / 483
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1083 / 1083
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1083 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$11 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$34 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$16 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$11 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$17 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$27 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $12 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records