Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3bf…e70f other 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1957 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$32,465 (+50%) realized +$32,900 · open −$435
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%44W / 114L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$761per market
Trades / day1957.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$14,293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$15,250
sports 2% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1957 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +16.2% +5.2% 28% 16% +5.2%
≤30d 158 +16.2% +5.2% 28% 16% +5.2%
≤90d 158 +16.2% +5.2% 28% 16% +5.2%
all 158 +16.2% +5.2% 28% 16% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1957.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.2% 16% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 13% -4.9%
15% -14.1% 11% -14.1%
20% -22.5% 11% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +126% → late -94% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
37.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$33 · ×11.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.57 per $1 lost it wins $4.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14,293
Realized+$32,900
Unrealized−$435
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses44 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions103
Markets (closed)158 / 86
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$761
Trades / day1957.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? No 99¢ 99¢ $3,012 $3,016 +$4 (+0%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,826 $2,937 +$110 (+4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $940 $986 +$46 (+5%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 94¢ $910 $945 +$35 (+4%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 90¢ $860 $895 +$35 (+4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? No 92¢ 93¢ $570 $576 +$6 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? No 81¢ 84¢ $405 $422 +$17 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $385 $363 −$22 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 98¢ $354 $357 +$3 (+1%)
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $255 $308 +$53 (+21%)
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $230 $288 +$58 (+25%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $170 $245 +$75 (+44%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? No 90¢ 94¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $219 $196 −$23 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $89 $195 +$106 (+118%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $164 $178 +$14 (+8%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? No 87¢ 90¢ $172 $177 +$5 (+3%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $188 $160 −$28 (-15%)
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $122 $159 +$36 (+29%)
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $124 $154 +$29 (+24%)
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $50 $149 +$99 (+199%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $119 $124 +$5 (+5%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $78 $86 +$9 (+11%)
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $331 $79 −$252 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 17 $429 −$429 -100%
Exact Score: Luxembourg 2 - 3 Italy? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Chelsea FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Serbia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -84%
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Greece? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 2 Hamburger SV? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Greece? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest FC? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Greece? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 1. FC Köln? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Didier Deschamps be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Greece? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Greece? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Greece? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Greece? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $140 −$108 -77%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 0m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $380 1m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $3 2m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $152 3m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $152 3m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $30 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $19 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $31 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $31 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $31 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $21 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY No 99¢ $92 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 8¢ $48 4m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 8m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,293.29 · official $14,305.24 (match) · 3500 history records