Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3c3…ecb3 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 39% −$3
politics 13% −$1
economics 2% −$10
sports 1% +$7
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 12% -9.2%
≤30d 28 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 36 -8.1% -16.9% 28% 3% -9.6%
all 86 -4.1% -13.2% 36% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage477d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-0%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $250 +$6 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $132 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $248 −$4 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $352 +$3 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $138 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $129 +$9 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $164 −$3 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $304 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $283 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $148 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $57 −$3 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $292 −$4 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $142 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $156 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $110 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $157 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $157 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $158 −$3 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $2,000 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $1,001 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $115 −$10 -9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 27 $17 −$1 -8%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $121 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $127 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $166 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $143 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $139 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $105 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $117 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $132 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $160 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $160 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $99 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $146 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $146 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $125 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $18 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $80 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.33 · official $120.33 (match) · 297 history records