Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3c4…fe91 other 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-30%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$99
14 days−$99
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$79
sports 9% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.1% -23.2% 57% 57% -37.0%
≤30d 8 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 50% -38.8%
≤90d 8 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 50% -38.8%
all 8 -25.7% -32.8% 50% 50% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 50% -38.8%
10% -39.2% 50% -44.7%
15% -45.1% 50% -50.0%
20% -50.5% 25% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$45 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage18d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 −$122 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$28 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $97 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.70 · official $12.70 (match) · 14 history records