Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3c4…ac07 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+1%) realized +$49 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%46W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1
sports 39% +$7
crypto 17% +$1
politics 3% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 81% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 49 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 49 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×119.55 per $1 lost it wins $119.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,427
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses46 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage102d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,364 $1,364 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $42 $49 +$6 (+15%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) Jun 24 $415 $0 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $599 $0 -0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $350 $0 -0%
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $632 +$1 +0%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $481 $0 +0%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $249 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Regime" this week? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Terrorist" this week? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Beijing" this week? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this w May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Fiscal" this week? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Pro-Life" or "Pro life" this we May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Federal Reserve" this week? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 08 $438 $0 +0%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $829 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 17 to Apr Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April Apr 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, Apr 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Construction" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remark Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hot" or "Hottest" during NCAA National Champions remar Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions rema Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 71–80 times during March Madn Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "UFC" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April Apr 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on Apr 06 $107 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $630 1h
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) SELL The World 100¢ $30 35h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL The World 100¢ $599 35h
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $734 2d
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) SELL The World 100¢ $385 8d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Aterion Esports 100¢ $250 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Aterion Esports 100¢ $100 9d
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) BUY The World 100¢ $225 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Aterion Esports 100¢ $350 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY The World 100¢ $599 9d
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) BUY The World 100¢ $190 9d
Will Julian Champagnie win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $632 17d
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY No 100¢ $481 17d
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY No 100¢ $249 17d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 29d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 31d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 31d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 31d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $27 31d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 31d
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 31d
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Terrorist" this week? BUY No 100¢ $6 31d
Will the NYT front page headlines say "Regime" this week? BUY No 100¢ $7 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,426.90 · official $1,426.90 (match) · 120 history records