Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3c4…55cf politics 228 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,706 (-5%) realized −$3,700 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%120W / 96L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days+$1,328
14 days+$1,038
30 days+$1,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$477
other 25% −$145
world 14% −$1,727
sports 12% −$217
crypto 12% −$2,309
culture 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +41.3% +27.9% 68% 64% +17.0%
≤30d 32 +23.1% +11.4% 59% 56% +8.4%
≤90d 32 +23.1% +11.4% 59% 56% +8.4%
all 216 +6.1% -4.0% 56% 44% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 44% -14.2%
10% -13.2% 37% -22.4%
15% -21.6% 31% -29.9%
20% -29.3% 25% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$188 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$2,402
Realized−$3,700
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses120 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions12
Markets (closed)216 / 228
History coverage616d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $308 $357 +$49 (+16%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 85¢ $200 $230 +$30 (+15%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $200 $144 −$56 (-28%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $557 +$414 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $151 +$46 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$114 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$251 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$218 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$352 +344%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$396 +258%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7? Mar 07 $3,124 −$3,124 -100%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 07 $2,527 +$594 +24%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Mar 06 $2,297 +$230 +10%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 05 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 28 $3,804 +$741 +20%
Will Kanye tweet again by Friday? Feb 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday? Feb 27 $2,281 +$143 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 24 $2,312 +$401 +17%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Feb 16 $70 −$70 -100%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Feb 16 $1,763 +$159 +9%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 13 $2,606 +$228 +9%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $39 +$34 +85%
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Feb 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration? Feb 10 $2,422 −$2,422 -100%
Weili vs. Suarez Feb 10 $40 +$49 +122%
Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration? Jan 20 $240 −$62 -26%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Jan 20 $317 −$153 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $158 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 23h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 44h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $202 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 3d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,401.82 · official $2,401.87 (match) · 1138 history records