Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3c5…c438 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$21
sports 23% −$10
politics 22% −$15
crypto 6% −$10
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% −$4
finance 5% $0
world 5% −$4
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.3% 2% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 113 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 132 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage102d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $49 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $265 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $194 −$2 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $804 −$4 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $56 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $195 −$2 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $55 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $37 −$2 -6%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $66 −$5 -7%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $33 $0 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $95 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $95 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $49 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $21 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $3 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $25 7h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $58 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 12h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $50 13h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 20h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $54 20h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $54 26h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 27h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 31h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $51 32h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $51 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 47h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $53 3d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $54 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.19 · official $29.19 (match) · 529 history records