Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3cb…8414 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$136 (+3%) realized −$191 · open +$327
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$421
7 days−$393
14 days−$711
30 days−$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$169
finance 20% +$64
world 16% +$179
sports 8% −$364
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -38.4% -44.3% 50% 0% -45.0%
≤30d 4 -64.7% -68.1% 25% 0% -57.4%
≤90d 7 -64.6% -68.0% 29% 0% -36.2%
all 12 -23.1% -30.5% 42% 25% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 25% -24.5%
10% -37.1% 25% -31.7%
15% -43.2% 25% -38.3%
20% -48.8% 17% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$152 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,874
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$327
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage164d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,547 $1,874 +$327 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $511 −$421 -82%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $493 +$27 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $221 −$216 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $125 −$102 -82%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $51 −$49 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $106 −$99 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $991 +$64 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $147 −$135 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4PM ET Jan 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $149 +$98 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12PM ET Jan 10 $11 +$28 +257%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $496 +$216 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $90 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $58 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $300 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,873.62 · official $1,873.62 (match) · 80 history records