Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3cb…83e8 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-15%) realized −$27 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$60
sports 36% −$55
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +27.8% +15.6% 53% 53% -33.9%
≤30d 15 +27.8% +15.6% 53% 53% -33.9%
≤90d 15 +27.8% +15.6% 53% 53% -33.9%
all 15 +27.8% +15.6% 53% 53% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.6% 53% -33.9%
10% +4.6% 53% -40.3%
15% -5.5% 53% -46.0%
20% -14.8% 47% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$28 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)15 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 80¢ $101 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 34h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $31 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $15 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.58 · official $157.58 (match) · 40 history records