Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc3cb…1499 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$307 (+9%) realized +$283 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$102
14 days+$76
30 days+$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$187
other 30% −$235
sports 13% +$195
culture 1% +$37
world 1% +$18
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +45.8% +31.9% 67% 67% +32.6%
≤30d 57 -29.1% -35.9% 35% 30% +5.4%
≤90d 74 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 35% -3.9%
all 74 -15.0% -23.1% 39% 35% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 35% -3.9%
10% -30.5% 31% -13.1%
15% -37.2% 31% -21.5%
20% -43.3% 24% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized+$283
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 45
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)74 / 79
History coverage76d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $97 −$40 -42%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $102 +$132 +130%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $298 +$156 +52%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $256 +$295 +115%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 08 $17 −$15 -93%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -24%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 +$5 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $10 +$7 +73%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$10 +95%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? Jun 04 $9 $0 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $36 −$20 -55%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-23? Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-20? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FBC Melgar win on 2026-05-22? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-20? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-21? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-23? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Georgia leading at halftime? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $35 +$24 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $56 1h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $8 16d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 95¢ $296 16d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 95¢ $2 16d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 95¢ $19 16d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 95¢ $11 16d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 95¢ $75 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 19¢ $10 17d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 68¢ $50 17d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 21¢ $10 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $31 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 43¢ $20 17d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 64¢ $30 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 42¢ $63 18d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 26¢ $80 18d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No 0¢ $0 18d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $15 18d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes 6¢ $6 18d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 45¢ $20 18d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 61¢ $25 18d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 18d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 19¢ $10 18d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY New York Mets 66¢ $10 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $51 19d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes 9¢ $10 19d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.58 · official $348.58 (match) · 229 history records