Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3cc…9c4b politics 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-0%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$13
politics 42% −$14
sports 5% −$102
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -6.5% -15.4% 4% 3% -9.7%
all 110 -8.7% -17.4% 6% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 5% -10.0%
10% -25.3% 4% -18.6%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage117d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $440 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $392 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $196 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $405 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $432 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $372 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $430 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $387 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 29 $233 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $798 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $371 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 16 $487 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 32h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $209 22d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $209 26d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $239 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $223 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 28d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $196 29d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $196 30d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 30d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 31d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 32d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 332 history records