Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 496 History 112 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,638
7 days−$2,638
14 days−$2,638
30 days−$2,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $2,879 $2,792 −$88 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 76¢ $2,582 $2,453 −$129 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 69¢ 52¢ $2,104 $1,568 −$536 (-25%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $395 $395 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 78¢ $435 $388 −$47 (-11%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $383 $379 −$4 (-1%)
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $344 $345 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 87¢ 66¢ $431 $324 −$106 (-25%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 62¢ $100 $312 +$212 (+212%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $298 $298 +$0 (+0%)
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $297 $298 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $297 $297 +$0 (+0%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $296 $296 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $294 $294 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $291 $291 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 97¢ $291 $291 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $290 $291 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $290 $291 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 96¢ $289 $289 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $289 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $281 $282 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $264 $263 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $263 $261 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $792 +$1 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $290 $0 +0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $764 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,369 +$3 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $48 +$4 +8%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $160 $0 +0%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $152 −$2 -1%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 12 $416 −$263 -63%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $611 +$26 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $4,138 −$1,894 -46%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $366 −$284 -78%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $785 −$653 -83%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $288 −$1 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,729 +$5 +0%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $388 $0 -0%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 +$3 +5%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,510 −$1,210 -80%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $772 −$445 -58%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $297 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $194 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,070 +$4 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $599 +$7 +1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $390 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $297 +$2 +1%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $568 −$481 -85%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $295 +$294 +100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $405 +$198 +49%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $427 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,011 +$2 +0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $189 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $308 +$135 +44%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $36 +$42 +117%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 12 $301 −$202 -67%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $95 +$1 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,443 +$632 +44%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 12 $126 −$77 -61%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $488 +$382 +78%
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $196 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$11,312
world 20% −$251
politics 11% −$294
sports 9% −$2,040
tech 1% +$12
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% −$13
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 0m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $3 0m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4m
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $19 4m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 5m
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 5m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 9m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 10m
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship S BUY Yes $6 10m
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship S BUY Yes $18 10m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 10m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 10m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 10m
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 10m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 12m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13m
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $52 14m
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 14m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1 14m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14m
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 15m
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $290 15m
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 16m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +5.6% -4.5% 71% 18% -14.9%
≤30d 112 +5.6% -4.5% 71% 18% -14.9%
≤90d 112 +5.6% -4.5% 71% 18% -14.9%
all 112 +5.6% -4.5% 71% 18% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1863.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 18% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 13% -23.0%
15% -22.0% 11% -30.4%
20% -29.6% 8% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,613.00 · official $26,616.11 (match) · 3500 history records