Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc3ce…8778 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$166 (-18%) realized −$138 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% +$9
politics 16% −$66
culture 16% −$84
other 16% −$35
economics 10% +$11
sports 5% −$3
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 13 -26.7% -33.7% 62% 23% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 23% -27.1%
10% -40.0% 8% -34.1%
15% -45.8% 8% -40.5%
20% -51.1% 8% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$53 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage206d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $56 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 11¢ 12¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $61 $32 −$29 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 27 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $47 +$9 +19%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 19? Jan 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 14? Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025? Jan 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 9? Jan 14 $98 +$98 +100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Jan 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 08 $58 +$7 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 03 $37 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Dec 01 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 27? Nov 27 $73 +$6 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.48 · official $186.48 (match) · 138 history records