trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-18%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 52¢ | 50¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | 50¢ | 50¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | Yes | 6¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-76%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 07 | $5 | +$6 | +136% |
| Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 07 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 04 | $5 | −$3 | -71% |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Jun 03 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 1? | Jun 02 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30? | May 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? | May 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 26? | May 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? | May 24 | $19 | +$10 | +49% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 13? | May 13 | $9 | +$17 | +179% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 13? | May 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 10? | May 11 | $10 | +$10 | +95% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 10? | May 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 10? | May 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 10? | May 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 8? | May 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? | Apr 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 26? | Apr 26 | $10 | +$11 | +115% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +17.8% | +6.6% | 50% | 50% | +0.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -58.6% | -62.6% | 20% | 20% | -26.1% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -42.0% | -47.5% | 26% | 26% | -7.7% |
| all | 19 | -42.0% | -47.5% | 26% | 26% | -7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -47.5% | 26% | -7.7% |
| 10% | -52.5% | 26% | -16.6% |
| 15% | -57.1% | 26% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -61.3% | 21% | -32.0% |