Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc3cf…51d2
other · 201 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$378 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,796 · open +$142
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,239
Realized+$1,796
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses69 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)270 / 201
History coverage45d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 30 History 270 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$776
7 days−$474
14 days−$670
30 days−$1,293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $262 $395 +$133 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $442 $351 −$91 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $349 $340 −$9 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $182 $199 +$17 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $97 $120 +$24 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $71 $99 +$28 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $112 $96 −$16 (-14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $83 $74 −$8 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 33¢ $42 $66 +$24 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $54 $52 −$2 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $52 $49 −$3 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $29 $45 +$16 (+55%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 3¢ 43¢ $3 $43 +$40 (+1330%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $22 $41 +$19 (+86%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Will Conor McGregor fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Jun 14 $24 −$28 -119%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tom Izzo win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$3 -443%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Travis Steele win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 9? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mark Byington win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Schertz win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 490 million subscribers by April 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 17 to Apr Jun 14 $0 −$7 -21017%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$15 -227%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 11? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$12 -452%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cameron Boozer be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end o Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will P.J. Haggerty be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end of Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daeshun Ruffin be the NCAA Division 1 leading scorer at the end o Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 11? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in March 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Jun 14 $0 −$2 -1179%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$2,160
sports 0% +$158
crypto 0% +$28
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 5m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 5m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $111 5m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $129 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $68 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $89 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $154 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $89 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $46 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $111 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -63.1% -66.6% 12% 8% -10.1%
≤30d 220 -38.1% -44.0% 19% 10% -10.6%
≤90d 270 -11.0% -19.5% 26% 16% -6.3%
all 270 -11.0% -19.5% 26% 16% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 16% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 14% -15.3%
15% -34.2% 13% -23.5%
20% -40.7% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,239.41 · official $2,239.41 (match) · 3500 history records