Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3cf…b9f7 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%8W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$13
politics 16% −$7
other 5% −$28
sports 1% −$52
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.1% +13.2% 17% 17% -0.2%
≤30d 14 +10.7% +0.2% 14% 7% -6.1%
≤90d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 9% 3% -16.0%
all 50 -3.1% -12.3% 16% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses8 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage589d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $7 +$11 +152%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Mar 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 15 $42 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 11 $42 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 05 $88 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 13 $85 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $13,516 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $19 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $213 $0 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $764 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,025 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $515 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $7 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.63 · official $9.63 (match) · 237 history records