Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc3d2…9383 world 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%38W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$15
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$12
politics 19% +$2
other 15% −$1
sports 14% +$5
economics 5% +$4
finance 1% −$18
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +7.8% -2.5% 40% 3% -9.5%
all 116 +5.9% -4.2% 33% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -13.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -21.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -29.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses38 / 78
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)116 / 120
History coverage303d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $173 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $355 −$3 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $315 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $679 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $691 +$13 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $227 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $311 +$3 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $157 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $288 −$16 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $165 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $354 +$5 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $18 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $166 +$3 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $139 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $163 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $229 −$18 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $169 +$3 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $297 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 19 $169 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $176 +$3 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $189 +$1 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $271 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $183 −$1 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $195 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $203 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $7 $0 -5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $347 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $365 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $331 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 5m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $27 22h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $61 22h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $38 22h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $47 22h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $173 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $35 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $189 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $183 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $126 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $169 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $185 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $186 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $118 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $186 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 552 history records