Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d2…7d5c sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-13%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$10
other 18% $0
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.1% -1.3% 62% 62% -6.8%
≤30d 53 -18.3% -26.1% 55% 51% -22.5%
≤90d 53 -18.3% -26.1% 55% 51% -22.5%
all 53 -18.3% -26.1% 55% 51% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 51% -22.5%
10% -33.2% 40% -30.0%
15% -39.6% 28% -36.7%
20% -45.6% 23% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage26d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +111%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +106%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +103%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +11%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 +11%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +28%
Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 May 31 $1 $0 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 $0 +32%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2 $0 +6%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$2 +70%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 202 May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $2 +$1 +48%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 VfB Stuttgart? May 23 $1 $0 +10%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $1 $0 +27%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 0.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to Score May 23 $1 +$1 +62%
Mexico vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 May 23 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 23 $1 $0 +48%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $2 +$1 +54%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 0.5 May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +14%
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 22h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2 22h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $1 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $4 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 37h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $5 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $1 40h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $1 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $1 46h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 11d
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 12d
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 87 history records