Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d3…3ac4 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-8%) realized −$29 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$52
14 days+$17
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$20
crypto 25% −$14
sports 6% −$2
politics 3% −$11
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +26.7% +14.7% 59% 59% +16.6%
≤30d 21 +2.6% -7.2% 48% 48% -4.5%
≤90d 35 -34.7% -40.9% 31% 31% -19.5%
all 35 -34.7% -40.9% 31% 31% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 31% -19.5%
10% -46.5% 31% -27.2%
15% -51.7% 23% -34.3%
20% -56.4% 23% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -92% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)35 / 60
History coverage79d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 47¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-50%)
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 19¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes 37¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$14 +70%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$16 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +164%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $21 +$17 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 12 $3 −$6 -194%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 2? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 2? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 2? Apr 06 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 26h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 36h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 36h
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Austria be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.32 · official $226.24 (match) · 87 history records