Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d3…804b crypto 1242 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,720 (-11%) realized −$2,720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%741W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day84.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$440
14 days−$1,634
30 days−$3,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,043
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -19.9% -27.6% 37% 19% -17.4%
≤30d 1265 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 56% -21.0%
≤90d 1265 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 56% -21.0%
all 1265 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 56% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 56% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 46% -28.6%
15% -28.5% 32% -35.5%
20% -35.5% 23% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses741 / 524
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1265 / 1242
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day84.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1265 Trades
no open positions (280 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $68 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$14 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $65 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$8 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $11 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records