Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C3 0xc3d4…1681 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$8 (-8%) realized −$8 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown83%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-28.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+18.1%	+6.9%	100%	75%	+7.0%
≤30d	4	+18.1%	+6.9%	100%	75%	+7.0%
≤90d	6	-21.3%	-28.8%	67%	50%	-1.2%
all	6	-21.3%	-28.8%	67%	50%	-1.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.8%	50%	-1.2%
10%	-35.6%	33%	-10.6%
15%	-41.8%	0%	-19.3%
20%	-47.5%	0%	-27.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$8

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage62d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown83%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$6	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 23	$23	+$5	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 23	$23	+$4	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Jun 23	$23	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Apr 22	$4	−$4	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Apr 22	$4	−$4	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$33	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$4	62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$4	62d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records