Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d8…17a6 other 8 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-47%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$24
tech 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 25% -52.6%
≤30d 8 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 25% -52.6%
≤90d 8 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 25% -52.6%
all 8 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 25% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 25% -52.6%
10% -44.2% 25% -57.2%
15% -49.6% 25% -61.3%
20% -54.6% 25% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records