Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3d9…8354 crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (253 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-15%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%54W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day252.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (253 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 35% -26.5%
≤30d 134 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 35% -26.5%
≤90d 134 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 35% -26.5%
all 134 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 35% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 35% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 23% -33.5%
15% -33.6% 18% -39.9%
20% -40.1% 14% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses54 / 80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day252.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 41¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $1.04 (match) · 648 history records