Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc3db…0fdb crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%32W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$32
14 days−$28
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$22
weather 11% −$7
tech 3% +$1
world 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +22.6% +10.9% 56% 24% -13.6%
≤30d 48 +14.9% +3.9% 67% 17% -12.6%
≤90d 48 +14.9% +3.9% 67% 17% -12.6%
all 48 +14.9% +3.9% 67% 17% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 17% -12.6%
10% -6.0% 15% -21.0%
15% -15.1% 12% -28.6%
20% -23.4% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses32 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage32d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $45 −$22 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$49 +558%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $54 −$53 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $43 +$17 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +150%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$17 +614%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +9%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $12 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $9.17 (match) · 153 history records