Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3dc…e94d sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2 (+23%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$2
other 50% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +52.4% +37.9% 33% 33% +37.7%
≤30d 3 +52.4% +37.9% 33% 33% +37.7%
≤90d 3 +52.4% +37.9% 33% 33% +37.7%
all 3 +52.4% +37.9% 33% 33% +37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.9% 33% +37.7%
10% +24.7% 33% +24.5%
15% +12.6% 33% +12.5%
20% +1.6% 33% +1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×10.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.16 per $1 lost it wins $5.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 19m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 22m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.76 · official $4.76 (match) · 11 history records